This month Ofqual published its provisional entry data for this summer’s GCSE and A-level exams.

Although the final data will not be ready until later in the year, these figures give a good indication of 2025’s exam and subject trends for teachers and school leaders be aware of.

Ahead of results time, here are the key insights.

1. GCSE and A-level entries down - despite a bigger student population

The most striking stat in the data is that both GCSE and A-level entries have decreased compared with last year - despite population growth.

For GCSEs, entries from Year 11 students are down 1.6 per cent (from 5,296,815 in 2024 to 5,212,910 in 2025), despite a 0.2 per cent increase in the number of 16-year-olds in England, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates.

Meanwhile, at A level entries are down 0.4 per cent year-on-year (from 825,355 to 821,875) while the number of 18-year-olds is up 3.8 per cent, according to ONS estimates.

This GCSE trend can partly be explained by Department for Education data showing that Year 11 numbers are down 0.7 per cent on 2024, from 634,835 to 630,354.

This could account for some, but not all, of the drop in entries this year. But it begs the question: why have Year 11 numbers decreased if the 16-year-old population has increased?

Meanwhile, the DfE data does not explain the A-level drop at all because it shows that Year 13 numbers have, in fact, increased, from 213,198 in 2024 to 213,777 this year - or by 0.3 per cent.

So what’s going on?

Some see plausible explanations for these drops in entries, including Tom Middlehurst, deputy director of policy at the Association of School and College Leaders.

One contributing factor could be that fewer students are taking triple science and instead doing combined science, Middlehurst says. “Physics, chemistry and biology count for three GCSEs, whereas if you do combined science, which is worth two GCSEs, it’s only reported as two entries rather than three.” As such, “you’re reducing [the number of entries] by a third”, Middlehurst explains.

The impact of this is particularly being felt this year because “the [teacher] recruitment and retention crisis has a long tail”, Middlehurst adds. “We’ve not met our target on physics teachers for years, so if you are a school that historically would have entered kids for triple science, but you haven’t had a physics specialist for a long time, maybe you’d do combined science instead.”

Meanwhile, David Lach, headteacher of Rosebery School (part of the GLF Schools multi-academy trust), says he suspects the fall in entries could be because “the number of students resitting GCSEs was artificially high, post-pandemic, and that is now dropping back”.

Regarding the lower A-level entries, Lach adds that he has “seen a greater appetite for post-16 vocational options...with more students open to doing a mixture of A levels and vocational subjects” - such as T levels and Btecs.

Middlehurst also points to the popularity of vocational qualifications as being a reason why students may opt for fewer A levels, adding that this trend “highlights why we really, really need to keep applied qualifications” amid some turmoil about their future in recent years.

2. Sciences losing their allure

Turning to the subject-specific data, the sciences took a significant hit in terms of GCSE entries this year - backing up Middlehurst’s speculation that triple science is proving less popular.

All three subjects saw a significant year-on year decrease in entries, with biology down by 6.4 per cent, from 183,360 to 171,690 entries; chemistry down by 6.7 per cent, from 174,745 to 163,100 entries; and physics down by 6.8 per cent, from 174,735 to 162,865 entries.

There doesn’t, however, seem to have been a direct move over to combined science, with entries for this increasing by just 0.8 per cent. Although, with 934,500 entries, it remains the most popular GCSE.

You can see the top 10 most popular English Baccalaureate GCSE subjects in the table below.

Meanwhile, at A level biology retains its spot as the third most popular subject, despite a 4.3 per cent decline in entries year-on-year, to 66,100. Chemistry comes in next, with a 1.7 per cent increase in entries on last year, taking it to 59,850. And physics overtakes business studies to become the sixth most popular subject, helped by a 4.2 per cent uplift to 42,025 entries.

You can see the top 10 most popular A-level subjects below:

3. Languages still in the doldrums

But the sciences aren’t the worst-faring subjects.

Entries for GCSE German have fallen 7.6 per cent since last year (from 35,110 to 32,430) - making it the EBacc subject with the biggest year-on-year drop-off. This has been the state of play for a few years, with entries having declined 12.4 per cent since 2021.

It’s a similar picture at A level, where entries in the language have dropped 6.8 per cent, from 2,280 to 2,125.

French has also experienced a decrease at GCSE, from 130,650 entries to 128,155 - a 1.9 per cent fall. The drop is even more drastic at A level, going from 7,035 entries to 6,450 - a 8.3 per cent fall, the biggest overall decrease of any subject in this phase.

However, it’s not all bad news for languages, with GCSE entries for Spanish up 1.6 per cent, from 129,935 last summer to 131,985 this year, meaning it has now overtaken French to become the most popular modern foreign language at GCSE.

That rise is reflected in the A-level entry data, too, with entries for Spanish up 1.4 per cent, from 7,720 to 7,830.

But, overall, the picture for languages is concerning, and shows that government must do more to encourage language learning, says David Blow, fellow of the Association of Language Learning.

“Although the increase in Spanish is welcome, the continuing decline in French, German and modern languages highlights the need for the curriculum and assessment review to reaffirm the importance of modern languages in an ambitious curriculum,” he tells Tes.

4. English still declining

The study of English is still in steady decline at A level - in all versions of the subject.

English literature entries dropped 4.7 per cent year-on-year (from 36,650 to 34,920) meaning it is the 11th most popular A level, sitting behind art and design.

Meanwhile, English dropped 4.2 per cent (from 13,010 to 12,460), and English language and literature dropped 6.8 per cent (7,085 to 6,605).

If you combine these variations, overall there has been an 8.3 per cent decrease in the study of English at A level since 2019, as you can see below.

Rebecca Fisher, CEO of the English Association, says the demise of the subject is worrying because “the study of English teaches core skills and dispositions for the world of work”, including communication, collaboration, critical thinking and problem-solving - all skills that “are in demand by the world’s largest employers”.

She adds that the key for turning this trend around will be establishing more enthusiasm for English in younger students. “We are advocating for reform to the English GCSEs in the hope that more young people will be inspired to continue their study of English, and go from there to rewarding further study and careers.”

5. History and geography down at A level

It’s a mixed picture for the humanities subjects, including history, which at GCSE saw a 5.9 per cent year-on-year decrease, moving down from 312,410 to 293,835 entries.

This was reflected at A level, as history decreased by 5.7 per cent, from 43,405 to 40,940 entries. This means it dropped a significant five places to now sit as the ninth most popular subject.

Paula Kitching, public engagement and outreach manager at the Historical Association, tells Tes that despite the fact that “those that study history at GCSE and A level consistently report enjoying the subject”, the drop in uptake “raises concerns for us”.

She adds that the association will engage with schools and teachers “to examine if there is anything we can do to further encourage the take-up of history”.

At GSCE, geography has seen a slight boost of 1.5 per cent, from 287,600 entries last year to 291,880 in 2025. That follows the trend of the past few years: it has slowly grown from 268,180 entries in 2021, overall seeing an 8.8 per cent rise in that time.

However, at A level the subject has seen a drop of 6.3 per cent, going from 33,505 entries last year to 31,395 this year. It remains the twelfth most popular subject.

6. Maths continues its dominance

For maths and other related subjects, the data contains yet more good news.

At A level, the dominance of maths continues as year-on-year entries have risen 4.5 per cent to 105,755, and the subject retains its spot as the country’s most popular A level.

Further maths has seen an even sharper rise of 7.5 per cent more entries, although it’s still a much less popular A level, with 18,730 entries in total.

This preference for maths-related subjects is also seen in the figures for economics, which has risen 5.6 per cent from 39,660 to 41,770 entries, making it the eighth most popular A level.

And the “maths effect” is also having an impact at the GCSE stage: the subject with the biggest percentage increase in the number of entries is statistics, rising a huge 9.2 per cent from 32,210 to 35,175 entries this year - and up an enormous 96 per cent since 2021.

Results days

Of course, further insights will be available once full results have been published later in the summer: on 14 August for A levels and 21 August for GCSEs.

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